Persistence Analysis of the Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict on NATO Allies' Military Spending-Empirical Analysis Based on Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR)

This paper focused on the sustainability of impact Russia-Ukraine conflict military spending NATO allies. As Russia launched a "special operation" in Ukraine February 2022, allies announced their intention to significantly increase response "threat" from Russia. However, under stimulation conflict, it is uncertain whether defense budget spree can be sustained. Based this, this analyzed NATO's context by building vector autoregressive model (VAR). Through impulse analysis, concluded that shock stimulates persistently only for about three years.